quarta-feira, 4 de dezembro de 2013

Sinais de vida inteligente no BCE

Nem de propósito:

Peter Praet (que é só o economista chefe do BCE) explicitly recognizes that non-standard measures can also be used to fight “falling prices”, and not just to address financial fragmentation as in the Trichet doctrine. 

This is a pretty important departure from a doctrine point of view and may open the door to more agressive actions. Indeed the charts presented by Peter Praet highlight that even in the ECB’s own measure of finanical uncertainty (slide 12), financial fragmentation has reduced tremendously to the point where it cannot alone justify unconventional intervention. 

Therefore any further action would be dictated by the need to loosen the monetary policy stance and not by the need to repair transmission channels.

Só para esclarecer, o artigo onde apontava ao BCE a capacidade e responsabilidade por resolver parte dos problemas foi escrito muito antes, e entregue para publicação há semanas. A apresentação em causa é de 19 de Novembro. E podem encontrá-la aqui.

Sobre este importante documento Paul Krugman já veio, também, pronunciar-se, dizendo que:

"But actually you don’t have to wonder. Whatever Praet may privately think, he and his boss have to deal with Europe’s Very Serious People — people who believe in austerity regardless of circumstances (...) The sad and remarkable thing that we’ve learned over the past year or so is how little intellectual debate matters. (...)  policy barely changes, and the VSPs continue to talk as if they are in possession of The Truth."